The current state of the industry and its future development
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has summarized the results of 2024 and shared its forecasts for 2025. The focus remains on supply chain challenges that continue to pressure airlines by increasing costs and limiting growth opportunities. However, 2025 is expected to bring several positive changes that could support industry recovery.
Supply Chain Challenges
Aging Global Fleet
The average age of aircraft has reached a record high of 14.8 years. In comparison, the average during 1990–2024 was 13.6 years. An aging fleet increases maintenance costs and introduces additional risks.
Decline in New Aircraft Deliveries
Aircraft deliveries dropped from a record 1,813 units in 2018 to 1,254 in 2024, 30% lower than initial projections. However, deliveries in 2025 are expected to rebound significantly, reaching 1,802 units.
Increase in Backlogged Orders
Orders for new aircraft have reached an all-time high of 17,000 units, reflecting strong demand for fleet renewal despite existing production constraints.
Rise in “Parked” Aircraft
By the end of 2024, approximately 14% of the global aircraft fleet (around 5,000 units) remained in reserve, 4% more than pre-pandemic levels. The global fleet now totals 35,166 aircraft, including those manufactured in Russia.
2025 Forecasts
Despite current challenges, IATA experts anticipate positive developments ahead:
Declining Oil Prices
Falling crude oil prices are positively impacting aviation fuel costs, potentially helping airlines reduce operating expenses.
Passenger Traffic Growth
Passenger traffic remained robust in 2024 and is projected to grow further in 2025, though at a slower pace. All regions are expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels.
Record Cargo Performance
Airlines forecast record-high cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK). In 2024, demand grew by 11.8% year-over-year, a trend likely to continue.
Role of E-commerce and Maritime Transport
Cross-border e-commerce remains a key driver of growth. Challenges and constraints in maritime transport are also boosting demand for air cargo.
Regional Trends
Cargo volume growth has been observed across all regions, ranging from 6% to 16% since the start of 2024. Middle Eastern and Asia-Pacific airlines stand out, driven by:
- The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce;
- Challenges in maritime shipping;
- Unrestricted access to Russian airspace.
Conclusions
The aviation industry demonstrates resilience despite supply chain challenges and shifting market conditions. Falling aviation fuel prices and steady growth in passenger and cargo traffic provide reasons for optimism. At the same time, innovation, fleet modernization, and effective logistics management remain critical to success. 2025 promises to be a pivotal year for the recovery and growth of global aviation.
